FRANKFURT, Oct 14 (Reuters) – Euro zone inflation may exceed expectations in the quick and medium time period, and this outlook for worth progress warrants an end to the European Central Bank’s emergency bond purchases subsequent March, Dutch central financial institution chief Klaas Knot mentioned on Thursday.
Inflation has surged this yr on a protracted checklist of one-off developments however a rising quantity of observers, together with the International Monetary Fund, warned lately that worth rises could possibly be stickier than as soon as thought and will develop into extra everlasting.
“The risks for headline inflation are again tilted to the upside,” Knot mentioned in a speech. “Upside risks, in the short to medium term, are mainly linked to more persistent supply side bottlenecks and stronger domestic wage-price dynamics.”
Knot, a hawk on the ECB’s Governing Council, argued that even when these upside dangers don’t materialise, the financial institution’s baseline projection alone warrants an end to the 1.85 trillion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme.
“The ECB’s current baseline scenario is consistent with ending the PEPP in March 2022,” he mentioned. “While we are currently thinking about options to ease the transition out of the PEPP, incoming data should clarify how the risks surrounding our current inflation baseline will play out.”
Knot, nevertheless, appeared relaxed concerning the longer-term inflation outlook, taking part in down some market fears that costs would spiral out of management.
He argued that the inflation outlook was now “back on track” and market-based inflation expectations had been placing worth progress broadly in line with the ECB’s personal 2% goal.
“I very much welcome these developments,” Knot mentioned. “Coming from a prolonged period of setbacks and deflation risks, this is good news.”
The ECB has undershot its inflation goal for many of the previous decade, regardless of unprecedented stimulus, together with copious asset buys, subsidised loans to banks and deeply adverse rates of interest.
The financial institution’s baseline projection now sees inflation rising in the direction of 4% at the end of the yr earlier than falling again below goal in 2022.