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Iran nuclear talks are restarting, but they’re pointless: Biden needs a bipartisan strategy

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President Joe Biden’s Iran coverage is failing, and the oblique negotiations restarting in Vienna Nov. 29 received’t yield a win.

Biden assumed that goodwill gestures and proactive concessions would convey Tehran to the desk. Instead, Iran is patiently transferring towards a nuclear weapon — or not less than a turnkey nuclear choice — narrowing the president’s choice area.

Out of concepts, Biden ought to shortly assemble a high-powered, bipartisan crew of out of doors advisers — assume Condoleezza Rice and Leon Panetta — to craft a new coverage that may unify Washington whereas Tehran alerts it’s getting ready to dash for a bomb.

Iran has produced uranium enriched as much as 60 p.c purity, a quick distance to the 90 p.c wanted for nuclear weapons. It’s additionally producing uranium steel, an necessary step in nuclear-weapon growth.

In February, Tehran announced it will not adhere to the Additional Protocol, which permits the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct short-notice nuclear-site inspections. It additionally halted IAEA entry to surveillance and different digital information collected at its declared nuclear websites. Meanwhile, it’s stonewalling IAEA investigations into its undeclared nuclear actions.

In quick, Tehran’s actions are not remotely in keeping with a peaceable nuclear program. For Biden, the inconvenient reality is Iran has taken its most troubling and aggressive steps after he took workplace.

An often-overlooked aspect of excellent policy-making is analysis. Is the coverage reaching its supposed objective? It’s apparent Biden’s Iran coverage is just not.

That stands out as the solely factor on which individuals on either side of the difficulty agree. The administration’s mates say it’s because former President Donald Trump poisoned the effectively together with his hostile rhetoric, relentless sanctions and the focused killing of Qassem Soleimani. Just hold negotiating, they are saying, and Tehran will come round.

Those excuses are simply an train in passing the buck.

When Biden entered workplace, Iran was hurting from his predecessor’s “maximum-pressure campaign,” but the White House refused to use the leverage it inherited. Robert Malley, Biden’s chief negotiator, declared in April that we noticed “the result of the maximum-pressure campaign. It has failed.”

What did Biden get in change for his good will? Nothing. His crew isn’t even allowed in the identical room with Iranian negotiators. Tehran acquired sanctions relief with none commitments.

Now the Islamic Republic desires “more for less”: an association the place America supplies even higher sanctions aid in change for nuclear restrictions far much less stringent than within the 2015 nuclear deal.

Diagnosing the issue with Biden’s Iran coverage is simple; growing a answer is tougher.

The IAEA board of governors assembly this week is a crucial alternative. The Biden administration ought to pursue Tehran’s censure for overlaying up clandestine nuclear work all through the deal’s existence. It’s resisted up to now, fearful that Iran would turn into much less cooperative on the negotiating desk, but the talks are moribund, so it’s time Biden signaled that Washington is finished ready. When the board passed a June 2020 censure decision, Iran (briefly) complied with the IAEA’s requests for info and entry.

More necessary, the president ought to use the delay Tehran’s stonewalling has created to order a coverage evaluate co-led by a Democrat not in his administration and a Republican who wasn’t within the Trump administration. Several candidates come to thoughts: Robert Gates and Leon Panetta, former protection secretaries, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former CIA Director David Petraeus and former Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.).

The coverage evaluate must be fast, ideally 30 to 60 days, and begin with a evaluate of the Islamic Republic’s motivations. Is Tehran growing its nuclear actions as leverage for sanctions elimination and a return to the 2015 nuclear deal? Or does Iran have a look at North Korea, which examined its first nuclear weapon greater than 15 years in the past, for instance to comply with?

The solutions to these questions will decide whether or not a return to the 2015 nuclear deal or any settlement that gives Tehran much-needed sanctions aid is advisable. If Tehran is barely inquisitive about pursuing a monetary lifeline for restricted nuclear concessions, then the “longer and stronger” deal that Biden initially advocated is just not attainable. Removing all leverage for an expiring deal — or one which’s even worse — is just not in America’s pursuits.

Some specialists will say there’s no time for such a evaluate. But Biden has already spent 9 months ready for Iran to turn into a cooperative negotiating associate — he can spare 30 to 60 days to get his strategy proper. If he doesn’t, Tehran will comply with Pyongyang’s path to a nuclear weapon.

Anthony Ruggiero is a senior fellow on the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and served as senior director for counterproliferation and biodefense on the National Security Council.

Twitter: @NatSecAnthony.

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